On Serendipity and Success
Many are the stories of athletes who rose to the top after being doubted. That gives hope to every kid imagining big game moments in their back yard.
Look at Fernando Mendoza who just made his NFL preseason debut. First overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft, led the Indiana Hoosiers to a legendary 16-0 record to win the NCAA National Championship.
Was this inevitable? Was Mendoza always that good, was becoming the best player in the nation (he won the Heisman too) his natural progression?
His college career wasn't amazing at first. In high school he wanted to walk-on in his hometown at the University of Miami, but that door shut. He went to Cal where he redshirted his first season, then earned his first start week 6 of his second season and went 9-10 overall across two years of play (including two bowl game losses).
It was only after this grind that he transferred to Indiana University, teamed up coach Cignetti and the boys to go undefeated and play perhaps the best season of college football we've ever witnessed. Mendoza was always a great player but he was only "the best" for his last year at Indiana.
When Cignetti took the job at Indiana, he brought 13 players with him from James Madison University. James Madison is a renowned football program but it is FBS, so not the big leagues per-say, and the players that get recruited there are not supposed to be "the best" in the nation.
But among these 13 JMU men who came to Indiana, 2 just got drafted into the NFL alongside Mendoza: Elijah Sarratt and Aiden Fisher. These guys were never supposed to play pro football, but they are.
It's like surfers practicing everyday, trying to catch the big wave. People think they're average. Then that big wave comes and they rise with it. Now everyone can see that they are amazing.
It takes hard work to rise to the top - the classic recipe - blood, sweat, and tears. No one got there by accident.
But it also takes serendipity. Meeting that coach and buying into his system. Having that great game when the scout was watching. Catching that big wave.
How many players worked just as hard, were just as talented, but didn't meet the right person at the right time? Didn't have a good coach? Didn't find themselves in a system that elevated them and worked to their strengths? Got injured at the wrong time? The big wave never came.
The right circumstances can take someone from "pretty good" to "best in the world". That is amazing; it's the glory of serendipity.
I think this is why it feels so right when we see "the best in the world" carry themselves with a spirit of gratitude and humility. They know it wasn't all them. It could have been someone else. There were hundreds of people around them that made their rise happen. Things could have been very different if the stars hadn't aligned for them, if the wave didn't come.
And this applies to all domains and all levels within them, not just the world's top sports leagues. Did you get that award at work? You put in the work, but also that one manager heard that one thing you said in that one meeting... There's a lot we don't control which contributes to our successes.
For those of us who aren't "the best" - It isn't a judgement on our character, our work ethic, or our value. We can enjoy the stars aligning for others. We can enjoy seeing others masterfully surfing that big wave. We had other battles to fight and lessons to learn, and that's ok. It sounds cheesy, but I think it's true.